March 12, 2010
Tips for the passive retiree investor
FTIF-GLOBAL BOND FUND
I had never invested in bonds or bond funds till one day in
2006 when the POSB told me that I had to put up $5,000 if I
wanted to rent its safe deposit box in POSB Bras Basah Road.
Around 2008, the POSB told me that they would charge safe
deposit fees instead. I was unhappy as I thought I had lost my
capital as the recession had come in. In 2009, the POSB wrote
that the Bras Basah branch would close down and I had to clear
out my safe deposit box. I had not bothered to do research and
thought that I had lost my capital since it was still
recession in Singapore.
Surprisingly, Patricia, a POSB officer took the trouble to
phone me to say that I had made some money instead of losing
my capital of $5,000.
So, I sold off the bond in Dec 2009. I got $6,396.69.
Therefore, I made around $1,400. $1,400/$5,000 = 28%
interest in 3 years. Therefore, the POSB's compulsory purchase
of the Fund enabled me to earn an interest of around 9% per
year. The POSB pays a savings deposit of 0.125% and a fixed
deposit of 0.45% (for people <55 years) and 0.55% (for people
>55 years). Therefore 9% interest is a considerable amount of
return for a person who does not invest in unit trusts, bonds
or shares for the past 10 years.
I provide some tips on bond
fund investments as contrasted to investing in shares:
1. Do your research as to how your money is invested. Franklin
Templeton Fixed Income Strategy's is to invest in Coupon
Income (It means buying bonds from governments and earning
fixed interest income per year), Active Currency Management
(It means they buy and sell currencies of various countries to
make money) and Capital Appreciation (It means your share
values go up over the years, see table below).
2. Some funds are well respected and rated highly (being given
awards).
3. Historical results of making money such as the above at 9%
are just a guide but past good performance is important for
the passive investor.
4. Invest only in money you can afford to lose.
5. Buy low and sell high. Bonds are meant to be a mid to long
term investment of 3 to >5 years, rather than making a fast
buck as in speculative share or forex trading.
6. Every year, you need to pay a "sales charge" of maybe 1 to
3%, lowering your profits.
7. Know what is NAV (Net Asset Value). In simple terms,
it is the money you will get if you sell the fund. The POSB
girl defined it as Sum Invested - Sales Charge divided by
unit price. The Sales Charge in 2006 was 3% when I
invested. In March 2009, it is 1%. It is tempting to invest
when the sales charge is now 1%. The annual charge is said to
be 1% too. In the final analysis, it is the results
that count, rather than think of the sales charge of 3% or
1%.
8. Dividends are given in my fund as shares and not as money.
In Dec 2009, the NAV (Net Asset Value) of my Fund was S$11.26
when I sold it. As at Mar 9, 2010, it was S$11.59, the young
POSB financial officer pointed out to me. Well, I should not
have sold the fund on hindsight. However, the funds are not
guaranteed by banks and they may lose value (depending on
when you sell).
I sold it because no
financial officer in the POSB bothered to advise me. The young
financial officers come and go in the POSB branches and
therefore there is no after-sales services or creation of
loyalty or retention of old customers.
People like Patricia are gems and are very rare in the
Singapore banking industry. She has an excellent memory and
could remember me at Toa Payoh when she saw me talking to her
colleague. She took the trouble to offer me and her colleague
(the young POSB Financial Adviser) who was making
presentations on the FTIB bond, a cup of mineral water branded
by POSB. No young financial officer in the POSB I encountered
bothered to do this. In any case, the young man I spoke to had
disappeared and this girl had taken his desk. The young
financial investment officers of various banks do not seem to
be trained or motivated to create a connection with the
customer as they know they don't stay long in their desk. That
is why I write that Patricia, in her late 30s, is a real gem
for a business that is looking for top people-service
personnel.
Excellent client service comes naturally to Patricia (offering
water for me and her colleague to drink). She was able to
recognise me though she saw me only a few times in Bras Basah
Road long ago. Probably something outstanding about me
made her remember me. I had complained to her that the POSB
made me lose money by forcing me to buy the fund in order to
rent their safe deposit box. And she had actually phoned me
back to tell me I was mistaken and that I made good money of
over $1,000.
The Bras Basah branch had closed down in 2009 and she was
posted out without knowledge of where she would be going. She
does not have name cards when I asked her. So her own
customers whom she provided exceptional services had a hard
time locating her since she did not know where she would be
posted. Some managed to find her in Toa Payoh. Others like me
was found by her! Other banks and corporations would do well
to poach her if they want to improve their bottom-line.
POSB (Post Office
Savings Bank), Singapore markets a FTIF-Global Bond Fund
(as in their letter to me). After going to the web to do some
research, the actual name of this fixed investment should be
FTIF Templeton Global Fund A (MDIS) SGD as there are 2
others, viz: FTIF Templeton Global Fund A (MDIS) SGD-H
(hedged) and FTIF Templeton Global Fund A (MDIS) USD. This is
what I mean by doing your own research.
The other 2 funds have NAV of $12.00 and $19.00 respectively.
Surprisingly, there is no relevant information about my
ex-fund on the internet. The following information regarding
my ex-fund (now referred to as FTIF SGD or FTIF in this
report) was from the young POSB financial officer I met on Mar
11, 2010. She compared it to the Global Equities Index (GEI)
from JP Morgan. Singaporeans love to buy shares. So, the GEI
is a smart and relevant benchmark rather than using the bond
index. The table is as follows:
|
FTIF SGD (one bond
investment) % |
GEI (various share
investment) % |
2004-2007
Bull market |
+37 |
+76 |
Jun 2007 - Dec 2008
Sub-prime crisis |
+13 |
-41 |
Jan 1
- Oct 16, 2009
|
+17 |
+33 |
2004
- Oct 2009 |
+67 |
+68 |
She showed that FTIF did not lose the capital and even earn
dividends during 2004 to 2009 while the GEI dropped below
normal and shot up, indicating high volatility.
In practical terms, this means that if you had sold FTIF at
any time during 2004 to 2009, you would not lose your capital
and even earn some profits. However, you would lose a lot of
capital if you had sold shares in the sub-prime crisis.
You would lose around 41% while you would gain 17% if you sold
the FTIF (see table above).
If you keep the shares or bond till Oct 2009, you would
not lose your capital and would make some money based on my
analysis below. Therefore, timing is so important when you
sell. For the passive investor who has no time to monitor or
speculate, diversify and don't keep all your money in the POSB
savings or fixed deposit account as they really earn miserable
income for you.
Buy,
for example, $5,000 high quality bonds and keep them for
more than 3 years or sell when the recession is over. I have
no more interest in bonds but the FTIF-Global Fund seems to be
a reasonably high quality investment for the passive investor
based on my short research. I just don't spare time for bond
research as I have no interest in bond investments. However,
for the passive retiree investor, high quality bond investment
may be important to ensure that inflation does not shrink the
spending power of your savings. Do your research and talk to
the financial officer. Successful past historical performance
does not guarantee no risk to your capital as the bonds are
not guaranteed by banks or the Singapore government. You
will lose money if you sell during a recession unlike your
savings deposit.
From the above table
from the young POSB girl, you can see how I got around 30%
profit from buying the FTIF in 2006 and selling in 2009. You
add 13%+17%. This is equal to 30% in 3 years. I got back
around $1,400 out of $5,000 invested. So, it worked out that I
had a return of 28% in simple calculations. I have to thank
the POSB for renting me the safe deposit box in 2006 and
earning around 9% interest per annum. I would have put
the $5,000 in the savings accounts, earning a miserable
0.125% per year! I recommend my friend, Julia to buy
$5,000 of the FTIF as it seems to be a good passive investment
for her. She was talking about putting her money in fixed
deposits. The interest rate from POSB for people over 55 years
is 0.55%. But she never has time to actually do it and now
earns 0.15% from her savings account. You need to spend time
to research if you want to build wealth yourself. Financial
officers may advise but you need to know what risks you will
encounter when you are buying into shares and bonds as you
will be competing with professional gamblers who can
manipulate the markets. |