On the eve of Polling Day
on May 6, 2011, I predicted that Prime Minister Lee Hsien
Loong and his team would win 70% of the votes cast. The PM had
apologised for the failures of the government in not building
sufficient HDB flats to stop the rapid rise of housing, the
Orchard Road floods, the escape of a terrorist from detention
and some of his ministers had apologised too. Some cynics
think that this strategy was to get sympathy votes but I
believe the PM was sincere. No government is perfect.
"Do you agree?" I asked Julia. She shook her head. "But he
would win," she said. "The Reform Party could not even afford
to put up their party posters in the neighbourhood."
"Didn't you see the posters of the Reform Party on the main
road?" I asked.
"Yes, but only on the main road and nowhere in the
neighbourhood.""I
fear that the PAP would be wiped out in this election," I
could feel the general frigid atmosphere whenever I surveyed
some of my clients as to whether they would vote for the PAP.
The massive crowds at the Worker's Party and other opposition
rallies were better than rock star concerts were well
photographed by the Press and shown in the internet. One of
the opposition's new candidates was young female in a group
fighting the established Minister Mentor Goh Chok Tong who
also had an equivalent
young
female in his group. However, the opposition young female was
able to speak very well in public and the press had given her
favourable coverage unlike the PAP's young lady candidate.
Sometimes it appeared to me that the press was pro-opposition
and the reporters were fanning the cries of the "non-silent
majority" for voices to be heard to blow away the "arrogance"
of the PAP government. A government that had performed very
well for Singapore's development in social and economic areas
when you compare to other governments in other countries like
Taiwan where legislators were telecast live showing how they
fought each other during Parliamentary sessions.
The opposition parties alleged that ministers replied to the
public unsympathetically when small disasters like the Orchard
flooding occurred.
This 2011 election was for a generation that "forget whence we
came from," according to MM Lee Kuan Yew. The hardships, high
unemployment rate, lack of public safety and racial riots were
forgotten as the Y-generation enjoys the fruits of success of
Singapore being a first world country and wants more goodies
without having to work hard. 5-day week even for civil
servants, 4 months of paid maternal leave. An internet forum
writer replied that his generation does not forget owing to
many reminders during school days but he or she does not want
to go back to "whence we came from."
Unbelievable housing benefits not present when I started
working in the 1970s as follows:
SINGAPOREANS EARNING LESS THAN $8,000 BUYING RESALE HDB FLAT
IN THE OPEN MARKET
$30,000 to $40,000 subsidy to buy a resale flat if your
household income is less than $8,000 per month (to be
increased to $10,000 as a result of the feedback and
unhappiness about the rise in public housing during the
elections).
SINGAPOREANS EARNING LESS THAN $8,000 BUYING NEW HDB FLAT
(BUILT TO ORDER) FOR THE FIRST TIME
No subsidies if the Singaporean household purchases a new HDB
flat which looks much better than a condo in the same locality
but cost 10-30% cheaper for Singaporeans only. These flats are
known as Built To Order (BTO) flats and will take time to be
completed since property is inelastic.
The opposition had asked for lower prices for new HDB flats
and more help for those affected by the high prices.
According to the Minister Mr Mah Bow Tan, increasing the
household income ceiling for buyers of new HDB flat from
$8,000 to $10,000 would make it eligible for 50% of
those who currently buy resale flats to switch to buying the
new HDB flats. He said this would lead to a decrease in demand
and therefore value of resale flats. Therefore present owners
of HDB resale flats would have capital depreciation instead of
"asset enhancement." So, another market segment is affected
when the government changes housing policies.
SINGAPOREANS EARNING LESS THAN $10,000 TO BUY NEW FLATS
BUILT BY PRIVATE DEVELOPER'S
Or purchase of an executive condo (EC) or design, build and
sell scheme (DBSS) flat with similar $30,000 to $40,000 and no
resale levy for Singaporeans earning less than $10,000 per
month. This scheme caters to the "sandwiched middle class" who
can't afford private property. The ECs have condo facilities
and if it is bought to live in rather than speculate, it is
value for money since $30,000 to $40,000 subsidies are given
by the government to buy the EC and live a lifestyle of
private condo owners. ECs are not built by the HDB and are
said to be much better designed by private developers. After
selling, the HDB and Town Councils will manage them. There
will be not be a condo management committee unlike private
condos.
SINGAPOREANS EARNING LESS THAN $5,000 BUYING A NEW 2- OR
3-ROOM HDB FLAT
In addition to the $30,000 to $40,000 subsidy, an
ADDITIONAL HOUSING GRANT (AHG) and another SPECIAL
HOUSING GRANT (SHG).
SINGAPOREANS GET TWO CONCESSIONARY LOANS TO BUY NEW HDB
FLATS. Lower interest rates. They can get more
concessionary loans but must sell back the flat to the HDB at
posted prices (below market prices). Obviously nobody does
that.
SENIOR CITIZENS WITH NO INCOME LIVING IN 3-ROOM HDB FLATS
Lease-buy back scheme. The government buys back the HDB
apartment (tail end of the lease of 30 years), gives $5,000
cash upfront and then another $5,000 for the purchase of a CPF
Life Annuity. This annuity provides an estimated $300-500
monthly income for life. Subletting the whole flat (and
staying with the family), subletting a room, downgrading or
cashing out are areas where the senior citizens can earn
income.
So it seems all market segments in Singapore are
politically covered by the PAP. The opposition's complaint was
that the prices of the HDB flats have shot up and the mortgage
payment is now 30 years. To me, it is better to have 30 years
to reduce the monthly mortgage payments freeing cash for other
expenditure.
Well, the PAP got 60% of the vote, down from the previous
election. PM Lee got 69.3%. My prediction was not spot on but
was close.
"You need not worry about that PAP would not form the
government," Julia replied to my opinion that the PAP
government could be wiped out this time, since there is great
anti-PAP sentiments judging from the internet postings and the
high turnout in opposition rallies as compared to the PAP
rallies. Well, she was correct in that the PAP got 81 of the
89 seats in the Parliament. By any international standards of
democracy, this is an incredibly good election performance in
a fair and open election.
Singapore's Polling Day was May 7, 2011. Around 2 million
voters, half of them from the younger generation voted.
P.S. Political intervention. The government introduced
property cooling measures before the elections to reduce the
cost of housing. These are:
1. For private properties, a Seller has to pay stamp duty of
16% during the first year of sale and lower percentages for
year 2-4. This means that it is not worth speculating in
private properties. This process is called "flipping."
2. Owners of private properties are NOT allowed to buy HDB
resale or new flats anymore.
3. Permanent Residents (PR) who purchase HDB flats must sell
off their private properties here or in their countries within
a period of time or face penalties.
4. Property owners buying another property but has an existing
housing loan will now only get 60% of the loan. Property
owners with no housing loan gets 80%. In the past it was 90%.
(I need to verify the %).
5. Commercial property buyers can only get 70% of the housing
loan. (I need to verify the %). This is to discourage more
demand for private properties increasing prices.
6. New HDB flat buyers (Built To Order), Executive condo and
DBSS condo buyers (restricted to Singaporeans or Singapore + 1
PR as spouse) are not affected by the stamp duty on selling as
the minimum occupation period is 5 years. The
first-time buyer still gets the concessionary housing loans
and the CPF housing grants of $30,000 or $40,000.
7. Market segmentation according to my lecturer's REA notes.
Market segmentation is a process in which a company divides
the market into distinct groups of customers whose want
different products or services. The intention is to identify
groups of similar customers - to understand their behaviour
and respond with appropriate marketing strategies.
These customer groups are as follows:
1. Geographic
2. Demographic
3. Psychological
4. Behavioural
Details of each group are as follows:
1. Geographic segment. Each locality has different
groups of property buyers. Consumers in different areas show
certain characteristics and behaviours. For example Districts
9, 10 and 11 are where the affluent customers are the rich and
famous buying expensive ($ per sq ft) properties. Downtown
Singapore has a population consisting of commercial and
residential properties.
2. Demographics is the study of the population by age,
gender, income and family life cycle amongst other variables.
They respond to different needs and wants.
For example,
age groups - fashion or magazines for teenagers only. Toys are
developed for children of certain age groups.
gender - cosmetics and clothing for women. A male lifestyle
magazine covering male fashion, films, cars, sports and
technology. Certain bars attract high-income female patrons
who enjoy 'social drinking.'
income - I use this example of the Singapore government as
regards to "affordable housing for the citizen". The low
income group (earning up to $5,000) can get Additional Housing
and Special Housing Grants if they buy new 2- or 3-bedroom HDB
flats. This is in addition to the CPF housing grant of $30,000
or $40,000 for first-timers Singaporeans who earn less than
$8,000 buying resale HDB flats. In effect, this group does not
pay any cash in getting a new HDB flat.
Psychological segmentation involves the social class,
lifestyle or personality characteristics.
The lifestyle, daily activities, interest, opinions and
beliefs on various issues make up the characteristic of each
group. For example the lifestyle segment of young
professionals (able to take risk in investment) and retirees
(frugal, least expensive tours). Marketers understand their
lifestyle profiles to develop products and services to enhance
their lifestyle.
Behavioural segmentation refers to why people buy a
product or service. For example, what is the benefit they seek
from the purchase and how it will enhance their overall
lifestyle. For example,
1. brand loyalty (drinks only Coca Cola),
2. occasion increases the reason to buy certain
products or services (Valentine's Day - buy more flowers and
chocolates, Christmas Day - turkeys).
3. usage rate divides customers into the frequency of
purchase. Heavy users contribute more to the company's
turnover than light or medium users. No example is given by
the lecturer. I will say examples of heavy users of products
or services are women readers who buy and read romance novels
and therefore the publisher of romance novels will ensure that
more authors of romance genre are advertised and promoted than
writers of scientific papers.
An example in the political area may be the "sandwiched middle
class" of Singaporeans whose income have shot past the $8,000
household income ceiling. They prefer to buy new HDB flats but
can't owing to their promotion in their career but private
housing is out of their reach. If the government changes its
policy of increasing the income ceiling to $10,000, this class
will buy new HDB flats which are 10-30% cheaper than resale
HDB flats on the open market and are brand new too.
My REA examination will be on May 25, 26, and 27 at 2
hours/examination. The above article may help those studying
for the REA or RES examination understand the complex rules
and regulations including the AHG, SHG (introduced in 2011),
CPF Housing Grants, BTO, DBSS, EC, 120% Valuation Loan Limit,
Minimum Sum Scheme, Additional Housing Withdrawal Limit after
the age of 55 years (AHWL), Leverage Buyback Scheme (LBS), CPF
Ordinary Account, Special Account and Medisave Account.
My lecturer said that there is no such thing as a Retirement
Account as it is part of the Special Account but there is the
mention of "Retirement Account" by the CPF board in
newspapers. All of these rules and regulations will make an
ordinary person go crazy trying to understand all of them and
being tested. Sometimes my lecturer also can't keep up to date
with the new policies.
P.S
Marketing segmentation also applies to veterinary medicine and
surgery. Some pet owners prefer a practice where they see the
same doctor for their pets (behavioural segmentation?). Some
cannot be bothered but want a practice next door (geographical
segmentation).
Some go for brand-name vets as they believe the vets there are
the best money can buy (behavioral segmentation?). Some want
old and experienced vets to handle their pet surgeries
(psychological segmentation?). Young pet owners are internet
savvy and will research their pet's problems on the internet
first before seeking out a vet (demographic segmentation?)
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